Pumpwatch

Paper books only, nothing is traded. Bars as of 2026-08-13 · last scan 2026-08-14T13:25:44.846513+00:00 · entry: 30d return crosses +100%, listed 365d+, 90d median quote volume ≥ $3M, short at that day's close.
Each book runs at 40% gross, so both together is 80% and often on the same symbol. "Beats controls" is the share of 20 books that shorted random eligible symbols on the same days; raw NAV alone means little in a market where everything fell.

Market state

Recorded only. Nothing here changes a trade, and it must not until a threshold fixed in advance has been tested on a window nobody has seen. The study found the short does better when alts are strong, which is the opposite of the obvious guess, and demoted that to a hypothesis because the threshold was picked after seeing the answer.
20%alt breadth
weak vs 45% threshold
44%BTC volume share
risingdominance trend
149eligible symbols

Pump fade

Short the pump, stop out at +20%, trail 15% above the running low once 15% in profit.
+18.5%NAV
-8.1%max drawdown
20closed
70%win rate
3/4slots used
100% of 20beats controls
Open
KAITOUSDTin 2026-08-01 at 1.2006 · now 0.427200 · stop 0.480700 · funding -26.44%
+37.6%
BOMEUSDTin 2026-08-09 at 0.000847 · now 0.000743 · stop 0.001017 · funding +0.12%
+12.1%
PUMPUSDTin 2026-08-10 at 0.002776 · now 0.002906 · stop 0.003331 · funding -0.01%
-5.1%
Recently closed
SKYAIUSDT2026-08-06 → 2026-08-08 · trail at 0.098543
+6.8%
EPICUSDT2026-08-04 → 2026-08-07 · trail at 0.853645
+16.6%
HEIUSDT2026-08-05 → 2026-08-06 · stop at 0.321888
-20.5%
KAITOUSDT2026-07-20 → 2026-07-26 · stop at 1.2026
-20.3%
DEXEUSDT2026-07-17 → 2026-07-22 · trail at 6.2675
+49.6%
RIFUSDT2026-07-07 → 2026-07-22 · trail at 0.082052
+30.3%
DEXEUSDT2026-07-12 → 2026-07-16 · trail at 37.5820
+21.4%
HMSTRUSDT2026-07-06 → 2026-07-10 · trail at 0.000216
+44.6%
HMSTRUSDT2026-07-04 → 2026-07-06 · trail at 0.000327
+3.1%
EPICUSDT2026-06-26 → 2026-07-03 · stop at 0.547200
-20.2%
ZEREBROUSDT2026-06-19 → 2026-06-20 · stop at 0.053702
-20.3%
WLDUSDT2026-06-14 → 2026-06-15 · stop at 0.627720
-20.3%

Short and hold

Same entry, no target and no trail. Held up to a year, closed only if it runs +60% against us.
+13.4%NAV
-4.2%max drawdown
1closed
0%win rate
10/10slots used
100% of 20beats controls
Open
SKYAIUSDTin 2026-05-20 at 0.323940 · now 0.078230 · stop 0.518304 · funding +5.80%
+81.3%
ZECUSDTin 2026-05-20 at 673.05 · now 490.74 · stop 1,076.88 · funding -1.20%
+25.7%
VVVUSDTin 2026-05-21 at 17.9600 · now 12.1650 · stop 28.7360 · funding -2.23%
+29.7%
NILUSDTin 2026-05-25 at 0.084890 · now 0.042040 · stop 0.135824 · funding -0.67%
+49.5%
NEARUSDTin 2026-06-01 at 2.6370 · now 1.6400 · stop 4.2192 · funding +0.91%
+38.6%
WLDUSDTin 2026-06-03 at 0.541300 · now 0.340800 · stop 0.866080 · funding -0.83%
+35.9%
STGUSDTin 2026-06-11 at 0.645300 · now 0.142800 · stop 1.0325 · funding -33.75%
+43.8%
ZEREBROUSDTin 2026-06-19 at 0.044752 · now 0.037535 · stop 0.071603 · funding +3.57%
+19.4%
HMSTRUSDTin 2026-07-04 at 0.000338 · now 0.000178 · stop 0.000542 · funding +0.05%
+47.3%
RIFUSDTin 2026-07-07 at 0.134280 · now 0.069240 · stop 0.214848 · funding -25.23%
+22.9%
Recently closed
EPICUSDT2026-06-26 → 2026-07-04 · stop at 0.729600
-60.1%

Recent signals

Every trigger, including the ones no book had room for.
PUMPUSDT2026-08-10 · close 0.002776 · listed 395d
+100%
BOMEUSDT2026-08-09 · close 0.000847 · listed 875d
+105%
SKYAIUSDT2026-08-06 · close 0.105970 · listed 449d
+200%
HEIUSDT2026-08-05 · close 0.268240 · listed 537d
+119%
EPICUSDT2026-08-04 · close 1.0275 · listed 508d
+173%
KAITOUSDT2026-08-01 · close 1.2006 · listed 526d
+112%
KAITOUSDT2026-07-20 · close 1.0022 · listed 514d
+114%
DEXEUSDT2026-07-17 · close 36.4200 · listed 569d
+151%
DEXEUSDT2026-07-12 · close 47.9400 · listed 564d
+146%
RIFUSDT2026-07-07 · close 0.134280 · listed 989d
+102%
HMSTRUSDT2026-07-06 · close 0.000393 · listed 647d
+122%
HMSTRUSDT2026-07-04 · close 0.000338 · listed 645d
+119%
EPICUSDT2026-06-26 · close 0.456000 · listed 469d
+123%
ZEREBROUSDT2026-06-19 · close 0.044752 · listed 532d
+107%
WLDUSDT2026-06-14 · close 0.523100 · listed 1055d
+114%